It’s also getting harder and harder to catch. While RealtyTrac reports foreclosure flings, which include both default notices and REO properties, ForeclosureS.com reports them separately. Also, many times exact figures are not utilized, but rather percentages. Through a few quick calculations and historical research, Foreclosure Research was able to determine exact comparisons.

Here is a snippet from an article published in the Credit Union Times on August 19, 2009:

“Clark County had the nation’s highest foreclosure rate during the first six months of 2009, according to RealtyTrac. In the county, 7.45% of all housing units were in foreclosure. That represents a 56% increase from the same period in 2008. Nationally, 1.6% of all housing units were in foreclosure during the first half of 2009, a 15% increase over the same period last year.”

Foreclosure research was able to calculate the total foreclosures by taking the 7.45 percent of housing units. The total foreclosure for the six month period was 82,127.

The following snippet comes from an article in the Review Journal published on August 9, 2009:

“For the first six months, Clark County foreclosures rose 84.3 percent to 23,588 from 12,800 in the year-ago period, Sacramento, Calif.-based investment advisory firm Foreclosures.com reported. Preforeclosures increased 34.8 percent to 47,467 from 30,922 a year ago.”

Based on these figures, Foreclosures.com reported a total of 71,055 foreclosures/properties for 2009, or an increase of 62.5% compared to Realty Trac’s increase of 56%.

Below you will see the breakdown of those figures. Again, while the difference is not as vast as usual, it still exemplifies that the reports continue to fail in accuracy. Yet, media outlets continue to report all such figures with the utmost confidence.

RealtyTrac
Totals:
2009 (based on 7.45% of housing units in the county): 82,127

Foreclosures.com
January to June 2009:
Clark County foreclosures rose 84.3 percent to 23,588 from 12,800
Preforeclosures increased 34.8 percent to 47,467 from 30,922

Totals:
2008: 43,722
2009: 71,055

62.5% increase

6.5% difference in percent increase
13% difference in totals

As seems to be the norm, the percent by which foreclosures decreased continues to be up to debate. According to an article published in Ad Hoc News, ForeclosureS.com reported that nationwide foreclosure had decreased 25 percent. The company also reported a 12 percent decrease in foreclosure filings.

However, according to a separate series of articles, a different percent was reported. These conflicting articles were based on RealtyTrac’s January foreclosure report. Based on this report, nationwide foreclosures had decreased 18 percent and 7 percent respectively. While it seems the margin between competing foreclosure listing companies is narrowing, they still offer a wide disparity of information. In order to better understand the conflicting figures, below you will find a visual representation. Also note that while the percent differences are closer than usual, the actual figures in properties remain quite vast.

Foreclosure Breakdown:
RealtyTrac: REOs/Completed Foreclosures December 78,938
RealtyTrac: REOs/Completed Foreclosures January 66,777
18% change

RealtyTrac: Pre-foreclosure Filings December 224,472
RealtyTrac: Pre-foreclosure Filings January 207,622
7.5% change

ForeclosureS.com: REOs/Completed Foreclosures December 97,841
ForeclosureS.com: REOs/Completed Foreclosures January 72,694
25% change

ForeclosureS.com: Pre-foreclosure Filings December 190,467
ForeclosureS.com: Pre-foreclosure Filings January 166,860
12% change

The fact of the matter is why would RealtyTrac have even released a figure that contained duplicate figures? Readers should ask themselves, what is the point of knowing that one home received two foreclosure flings versus just one?

This information is obsolete and should not even be reported. The two numbers and more so, just the duplicate filings number was reported in several media outlets throughout the past month.

Let’s take a look at some of the articles utilizing both figures including the higher figure reported first:

Kansas City Business Journal dated January 15, 2009, “KC ranks No. 49 for 2008 foreclosures.”

Morganton News Herald dated January 15, 2009, “Foreclosures increasing in Burke County.”

Articles that do not mention the actual foreclosure filings number:

Investors.com dated January 15, 2009, “Economic Downturn Eases A Bit in Jan., But Direction Remains Sharply Negative,” does not mention the actual amount of 2.3.

SchaeffersReasearch.com dated January 15, 2009: “Midday Market Update,” also does not mention the amount of properties, only the duplicate filings number.

MarketWatch dated January 15, 2009: “U.S. Foreclosure filings in 2008 rose 81% from 2007.”

MarketWatch dated January 15, 2009: “Gold dips, ending lower for fourth day on dollar, oil.”

More articles reported the duplicate foreclosure filing number of 3.16 million, perhaps for a couple of reasons. One, it is not clearly stated in the preliminary report that these are duplicate filings, or multiple filings for a single property; or two, the larger, 3.16 million number creates a little more drama and buzz.

In addition, Foreclosure Research would like to stand corrected, in light of the duplicate filings figure, that ForeclosureS.com and ReatlyTrac.com reported a difference of a quarter of a million foreclosure filings for 2008. While the disparity is less, it is still vast to say the least.

One article out of BusinessWeek offered some foreclosure statistics from ForeclosureS.com. According to the article, “the foreclosure process was begun on 2 million” homes but there were “over one million lost homes,” or actual repossessions.

However, according to an Associated Press article on Google, RealtyTrac reported only 860,000 actual repossessions by lenders.

The difference between actual foreclosures for both companies is almost 200,000 properties.

As for simply wrong information, that was found out of the BolivarMoNews website, where they put their own twist on the foreclosure information. Utilizing the report from RealtyTrac.com, reporter Sarah West stated that, “1 in 54 homes in the United States were foreclosed on, according to RealtyTrac Inc.”

This is incorrect. One in fifty-four homes received a foreclosure notice. As mentioned in prior articles, foreclosure repossessions and foreclosure notices are commonly confused by reporters and media journalists, giving the public completely false information.

In fact, based on U.S. Census data 1 in 147 homes were foreclosed on. A big wag of the finger goes out to BolivarMoNews.com and to the foreclosure listing companies with their incongruous data.

One article from Market Watch titled, “U.S. foreclosure filings in 2008 rose 81% from 2007,” offered data from RealtyTrac. According to the article, “A total of nearly 3.16 million foreclosure filings — measured by default notices, auction-sale notices, and bank repossessions — were reported in 2008.” This would make up the category of foreclosure flings, or default notices, not to be confused with actual foreclosures or repossessions.

However, according to a different article, total filings were much less. An article posted by BusinessWeek on January 14, 2009 reported statistics from a different foreclosure listing company, ForeclosureS.com. According to this article, by Chris Palmeri, “the foreclosure process was begun on 2 million during 2008.” Similarly, this comprises all foreclosure notices and filings for the period.

It doesn’t take a math genius to figure out the difference between both foreclosure listing companies is over ONE MILLION properties. Not to mention this would also affect the percentage at which foreclosure fillings grew.

According to an article dated January 29, 2008, from CBS NEWS, “foreclosure flings in 2007 totaled 2.2 million.” If the foreclosure rate from the latter source was in fact correct, then foreclosure flings for 2008 would have actually decreased!

With the year coming to a close, many companies and researchers are eager to predict the outcome of the 2009 market. With the economy hovering in a state of uncertainty, the upcoming New Year is on everybody’s mind. Real estate especially has seen a tumultuous year with the rise and fall of foreclosure rates, although the industry has seen more increases than decreases.

Foreclosure listing companies have offered a variety of foreclosure statistics throughout the year. Some reporting more accurate numbers than others, but all in all giving their representation of the market. Now these companies, utilizing their data and statistics collected throughout the year, will offer their own predications for real estate in 2009. In true form, the predictions are on opposite sides of the spectrum.

An article published on December 10, 2008 titled, “Prediction: market to recover in 2009,” offered one foreclosure forecast. According to the article, Alexis McGee, president of foreclosureS.com, stated that “Based on November’s foreclosure rates …the nation’s foreclosure hemorrhage has finally slowed and 2009 should see a significant decline in foreclosures as buyers return, pushing home prices up and fueling a real estate recovery.”

However, according to a different article, a competitor thinks differently. This article from Bloomberg titled, “Foreclosure Storm Will Hit U.S. in 2009 as Loan Changes Fail,” offers a prediction from Rick Sharga, vice president of marketing for Realty Trac.

The article quotes Sharga as stating, “We’re going to see a pretty significant storm next year.” The article continues, “Rising unemployment, expiring foreclosure moratoriums and state efforts that ‘run out of steam’ will push monthly filings toward the record of more than 303,000 set in August.”

As this Foreclosure Research title suggest, not even foreclosure experts truly know what will happen in the coming year. If accurately reporting present and past figures has proven to be a vexing task, then predicating the future is pretty much impossible.

Are you confused? You should be.

Take one of the latest foreclosure articles as an example. This article, titled “foreclosure rates up 25 percent year-over-year,” describes how ” more than 279,500 U.S. homes received at least one foreclosure-related notice in October (an increase of 5 percent over September).” The article written by Adrian Sanz was published in Yahoo news on November 13, 2008.

In this specific case, the important figure is that foreclosures increased 5 percent in October from September of 2008. The article continues to state that the information is according to Realty Trac, Inc., a regular in the media limelight.

However, another article, from a competitor, has a different take on the current foreclosure trend. According to an article in Market Watch titled, “U.S. Foreclosures Index: October Foreclosures Drop Dramatically to Near 2008 Lows,” foreclosures did something completely different. The article published on November 10, 2008 is a press release from Foreclosures.com, a competing foreclosure listing service.

According to the ForeclosureS.com article, “foreclosures fell for the second month in a row in October to nationwide lows not seen since last February.” The article continues by stating that the current numbers are lower by “nearly 7% from September’s high.”

Considering both articles, foreclosures either increased 5 percent or decreased 7 percent, a difference of 12 percent. An even greater difference lies in that fact that either foreclosures are getting better or they are getting worse. This fact should at least be further investigated as the numbers are reverberated throughout the US economy and indirectly influences consumer confidence. In addition, the media should we wary of reporting such figures as one or both of the articles are completely false.

Third quarter numbers have been released to the press with yet again many articles offering more conflicting numbers. Depending on the source of the foreclosure data, most likely readers will see a variety of figures reflecting the current state of the foreclosure market.

The first of these articles comes from CNNMoney.com titled, “81,312 homes lost to foreclosure in September.” The article published on October 23, 2008 by Catherine Clifford offers figures from Realty Trac, an Irvine, CA based listing company.

As stated in the headline, there were 81,312 foreclosures during the month of September. The article continues by stating that according to their information, foreclosures actually decreased 12% from August to September. While this figure may have been even more newsworthy for a headline than total month foreclosures, it was not given the attention it deserved and shuffled into the bulk of the article.

However, an even larger number that surprisingly was not utilized in the headline, was that pre-foreclosures, or foreclosure filings, totaled 765,558 for the entire third quarter of 2008.

On the other end of the media spectrum, there are a whole slew of similar foreclosure articles with a wide disparity in figures. One of these articles comes from Market Watch in a press release titled, “U.S. Foreclosures Index Shows More Than 107,500 Homes Lost in September.” The article written by Sofia Gutierrez provides figures from ForeclosureS.com, a competing foreclosure listing service.

The titles alone show a difference in foreclosure figures for the previous month. Contrary to the first article, ForeclosureS.com reported 107,500 foreclosures for the month of September. Continuing through the article, the decrease from August to September is also different. While Realty Trac reported a decrease of 12%, ForeclosureS.com reported a decrease of only 2.4%, both numbers reflecting foreclosure filings for the same period of time. Total foreclosure filings for the third quarter are also different. ForeclosureS.com reported a total of 561,467 filings, a difference of 204,091 total filings!

The difference in total foreclosures for the month of September is also disconcerting. The difference between total foreclosures from both foreclosure listing companies is a whopping 26,000 foreclosures! A difference of 26,000 owners losing their homes is almost as large as the amount of total foreclosures for the entire state of Florida for the entire month of September.

In statistics, a variance of nearly 25% would make the findings inconclusive. However, while the difference in foreclosure flings and total foreclosures were both 25% between companies, readers could simply use the 25% figure as a permanent margin of error when reading foreclosure reports from the usual suspects.

Nevada seems to have many of these types of listings with Lyon County, Nevada being the biggest offender.

In the image above readers can see a screenshot of a search results page for Lyon County, Nevada.  This shot was taken two weeks ago from today.  However, revisiting the same page today, you will find the same listing at the same page.  However, this listing, or loan amount, begins at page 34.  The listing, for $65,000,000 is repeated from page 34 to page 46 for a total of 220 individual pre-foreclosure listings with a loan amount of $65,000,000.

While the repeated loan amount isn’t suspicious enough, the listings type varies from vacant land to single family residence.  It also has varying market values starting at $280,000, which begs the question, how can a listing with a loan for sixty-five million dollars have only a market value of two-hundred and eighty-thousand dollars?

Page 6 through page 14 has yet another repeated listing; however the loan amount for this particular pre-foreclosure is for $100,000,000 (see picture above).  Again, the market value on this particular repeated loan amount ranges from $164,000 to $213,000; again, a difference of over $99 million.

Only a couple of pages down at page 20, a user will find other listings with a loan amount for $2,215,000.   This listing, or loan amount, repeats until page 29 for a total number of 180 pre-foreclosure listings.  Similar to the previous listings, the loan amount of exactly $2,215,000 ranges from vacant land to single family residences, and the market value also ranges from about $211,000 to $260,000.

When a user jumps to page 50, another replicated number appears.  In this instance the loan amount is for $10,650,000.  This listing is duplicated, or at least seems duplicated for about 3 pages.  Again, the market value for each individual listing ranges from $292,000 to about $302,000.

The total number of exorbitant loan amounts or duplicated listings totals around 620 listings.  Keep in mind, these were only from a sample of pages taken, the remaining pages could also have similarly irregular listings.  While it could possibly be true that 180 pieces of $100,000,000 land could have been foreclosed; at what value is that to the individual investor?  It is highly unlikely that land worth $100,000,000 would be sold for a measly $213,000- especially 180 times over.

However, I was able to find this figure on one of their search pages. See the photo above for the screenshot of the 5 million listings advertised.

At the same time the screen shot was taken, I referred to the press inquiry page, which as an aside has been down for about a month now. The press inquiry page showed 1,062,576 current foreclosure filings, or actually a total for the last 6 months. While this number only represents the filings, or default notices, we can then refer back to Realty Trac’s figure, that on average foreclosures represent roughly 30% of all foreclosure filings. Given this figure, that would represent around 318,770 actual foreclosures.

ForeclosureS.com also lists auctions, but many of these auction properties would already have been represented in the pre-foreclosure tab. The next tab REO/bank owned was already calculated above.

Considering these figures, the total current listings would be around 1,381,346. Just to err on the safe side, let’s say that the same amount of properties in the auctions tab would be equal to the amount of actual foreclosures (although it would be significantly less). Considering this, the total listings number would be around 1.7 million listings. With these simple calculations, one could then assume that around 3.3 million listings are unaccounted for.