On the plus side, foreclosures dropped in California in October all across the board. While the state still reflects some of the highest rates in the country, signs that foreclosures may be decreasing or even plateauing are a welcome report.

As far as by what percent foreclosures in California fell, it is unknown. As the norm, there were some conflicting numbers reported by varying foreclosure data companies.

According to an article in HousingWire titled, “Foreclosures Drop in California, as Lenders Boost Workout Attempts,” foreclosures dropped by 39.1 percent from September to October. The article, by Kelly Curran, published on November 13, 2008 offered data from ForeclosureRadar, a California-based foreclosure reporting company.

However, according to another article, this one published in the Associated Press, stated that “while California had the highest total number of foreclosures in October, the rate in that state was down 18 percent from the previous month.”

This article titled, “Foreclosure rates up 25 percent year-over-year” was published on November 13, 2008 and written by Adrian Sainz. The foreclosure data company used as a reference in this article was RealtyTrac, another California-based foreclosure listing company.

The difference between the two reports? A vast 20%. However, at least both foreclosure listing companies reported decreases. As Foreclosure Research has found on numerous occasions, when one company reports foreclosure are up, the other can very well report that foreclosures are down.

While the latter report offers the same period of comparison, the article utilizes one of those confusing tactics where foreclosures are compared for one period and then compared to a totally different period, all in one article. For example, this article headline: “Foreclosure Rates up 25 percent,” offers later in the article that foreclosures are down 19 percent from the previous month. Foreclosures are up from a year but now down for the current period. This type of reporting is confusing to the average reader and just one conclusive statistic should be offered per article that way a better understanding of the current market is offered.

Foreclosure statistics have again sprung up across all media outlets. However, unlike recent trends, the headlines for California are claiming dramatic foreclosure declines. Imagine, in a time with economic strain taking precedence in the media, comes an article with a slight glimmer of hope? But is it based on fact?

According to reports from Foreclosure Radar, California foreclosure notices in September dropped significantly compared to rates in August. The statistic comes from one of several articles on the subject, this one titled, “State foreclosures fall dramatically.” The article quotes the company as stating, “Notices of default, which indicate the start of the foreclosure process, fell 61.8 percent in California compared with August.”

While Foreclosure Radar rarely issues foreclosure statistics statements to the media, it is interesting to see once reporting a rather drastic change (whether it be an increase or decrease) the company is suddenly the sole source for foreclosure data and trends. Also, it was rare to see no articles utilizing Realty Trac statistics for California for that specific time period; as most likely they would have been different or worst yet, would not have been as dramatic. Over the last few months of foreclosure investigating, Foreclosure Research has come to find out the more drastic the change the more media coverage.

However, there was one foreclosure listings company that did report a similar statistic. In a press release published on October 9, 2008, Foreclosures.com reported that California foreclosure flings did in fact decline, however, they declined by just 38 percent. The decline issued by Foreclosures.com is almost half of what was reported by Foreclosure Radar. The figure issued by ForeclosureS.com, a company who is more frequently quoted in the media, was not found anywhere in traditional media outlets. Only the more dramatic change by Foreclosure Radar was used.

While California most likely did reflect a decline in foreclosure flings, it is up to the media to report not only correct figures, but not play favorites to those figures that would be easier to sensationalize.

Recently within the media there were a couple articles reporting on the increase in foreclosures in San Diego County.  While all the articles stated that foreclosure flings in San Diego had in fact increased, all of the articles had differing numbers representing the increase.  The numbers that differed were the total foreclosure filings for San Diego County for the period of July 2008.

The first article published August 22, 2008, “Foreclosures up 213% for July over last year,” stated that, “2,004 San Diego County homes went into foreclosure in July.” The article, written by Emmet Pierce, was based on information gathered from DataQuick Information Systems.  Here is a link to the article Signonsandiego Foreclosure Article.

The second article published on August 25, 2008, by Ned Randolph, offered foreclosure numbers from two separate companies.  Randolph’s article stated that, “in July, 2,174 homeowners in San Diego County defaulted on $940 million in loans, according to ForeclosureRadar.” The author continues by stating that “according to HouseRebate.com, a San Diego-based discount real estate service, there were 12,000 local homes in notice of default last month [July].” Here is a link to the article San Diego Business Journal San Diego Foreclosures Article.

Interestingly enough, Randolph simply stated the varying figures with no question or further investigation, simply that the figures were different.

Given the numbers stated above, foreclosure filings in San Diego County may have totaled somewhere between 2,004- and 12,000 properties according to the three separate foreclosure reporting companies: DataQuick, ForeclosureRadar, and HouseRebate.com.

Due to such a wide variance in findings, Foreclosure Research set out to identify the true amount of foreclosure flings in the area.  Taking information from various sources including the county courthouse, and filtering out unique properties and owners, Foreclosure Research found that there were actually 3,189 foreclosure filings for San Diego County in July 2008.

One reason for the slightly lower figures, could be attributed to past negative press around foreclosure listing companies, such as Realty Trac, which were said to double- even triple-count their foreclosure listings.  As far as the drastically incorrect number from HouseRebate.com, this company only offers a short sale list on its website, and probably would not provide a good indication of the current foreclosure market in San Diego County.