Foreclosure Research received a comment on a recent article stating that Realty Trac had posted two separate numbers for 2008 foreclosure filings. One number was total filings (3.16 million) the other number, which was not mention in the article, was the number of properties that received a foreclosure filing (2.3 million).

The fact of the matter is why would RealtyTrac have even released a figure that contained duplicate figures? Readers should ask themselves, what is the point of knowing that one home received two foreclosure flings versus just one?

This information is obsolete and should not even be reported. The two numbers and more so, just the duplicate filings number was reported in several media outlets throughout the past month.

Let’s take a look at some of the articles utilizing both figures including the higher figure reported first:

Kansas City Business Journal dated January 15, 2009, “KC ranks No. 49 for 2008 foreclosures.”

Morganton News Herald dated January 15, 2009, “Foreclosures increasing in Burke County.”

Articles that do not mention the actual foreclosure filings number:

Investors.com dated January 15, 2009, “Economic Downturn Eases A Bit in Jan., But Direction Remains Sharply Negative,” does not mention the actual amount of 2.3.

SchaeffersReasearch.com dated January 15, 2009: “Midday Market Update,” also does not mention the amount of properties, only the duplicate filings number.

MarketWatch dated January 15, 2009: “U.S. Foreclosure filings in 2008 rose 81% from 2007.”

MarketWatch dated January 15, 2009: “Gold dips, ending lower for fourth day on dollar, oil.”

More articles reported the duplicate foreclosure filing number of 3.16 million, perhaps for a couple of reasons. One, it is not clearly stated in the preliminary report that these are duplicate filings, or multiple filings for a single property; or two, the larger, 3.16 million number creates a little more drama and buzz.

In addition, Foreclosure Research would like to stand corrected, in light of the duplicate filings figure, that ForeclosureS.com and ReatlyTrac.com reported a difference of a quarter of a million foreclosure filings for 2008. While the disparity is less, it is still vast to say the least.

Some more conflicting numbers are out this week along with a sprinkle of blatantly wrong information. Foreclosure statistics for 2008 continue to make national headlines. Last week’s Foreclosure Research article focused on foreclosure fillings while this week’s article will take a glimpse at actual foreclosures across the country in 2008.

One article out of BusinessWeek offered some foreclosure statistics from ForeclosureS.com. According to the article, “the foreclosure process was begun on 2 million” homes but there were “over one million lost homes,” or actual repossessions.

However, according to an Associated Press article on Google, RealtyTrac reported only 860,000 actual repossessions by lenders.

The difference between actual foreclosures for both companies is almost 200,000 properties.

As for simply wrong information, that was found out of the BolivarMoNews website, where they put their own twist on the foreclosure information. Utilizing the report from RealtyTrac.com, reporter Sarah West stated that, “1 in 54 homes in the United States were foreclosed on, according to RealtyTrac Inc.”

This is incorrect. One in fifty-four homes received a foreclosure notice. As mentioned in prior articles, foreclosure repossessions and foreclosure notices are commonly confused by reporters and media journalists, giving the public completely false information.

In fact, based on U.S. Census data 1 in 147 homes were foreclosed on. A big wag of the finger goes out to BolivarMoNews.com and to the foreclosure listing companies with their incongruous data.

The yearly reports for 2008 are beginning to roll through. The various 2008 foreclosure analyses are looking less like reports and more like statistical conjectures. As Foreclosure Research has reported in the past, every foreclosure listing company has their own set of data and their own data gathering methods. Many times monthly reports show great differences but in light of a year’s synopsis the variance is immense.

One article from Market Watch titled, “U.S. foreclosure filings in 2008 rose 81% from 2007,” offered data from RealtyTrac. According to the article, “A total of nearly 3.16 million foreclosure filings — measured by default notices, auction-sale notices, and bank repossessions — were reported in 2008.” This would make up the category of foreclosure flings, or default notices, not to be confused with actual foreclosures or repossessions.

However, according to a different article, total filings were much less. An article posted by BusinessWeek on January 14, 2009 reported statistics from a different foreclosure listing company, ForeclosureS.com. According to this article, by Chris Palmeri, “the foreclosure process was begun on 2 million during 2008.” Similarly, this comprises all foreclosure notices and filings for the period.

It doesn’t take a math genius to figure out the difference between both foreclosure listing companies is over ONE MILLION properties. Not to mention this would also affect the percentage at which foreclosure fillings grew.

According to an article dated January 29, 2008, from CBS NEWS, “foreclosure flings in 2007 totaled 2.2 million.” If the foreclosure rate from the latter source was in fact correct, then foreclosure flings for 2008 would have actually decreased!

With 2009 now upon us, let us review the past year and see how the real estate market and the media reporting it have evolved from day one.

July 2008: the birth of Foreclosure Research
Key Points:
-Lack of articles publishing current decreases in foreclosures but rather focusing on increases from prior years.
-RealtyTrac reports 3% decrease in foreclosures from May to June, ForeclosureS.com reports 5.35% increase from May to June.
- No “current foreclosure” statistics available on RealtyTrac or ForeclosureS.com, making it nearly impossible to confirm their reported statistics.

August 2008
Key Points:
-Article reports conflicting numbers for New Jersey. One figure from Realty Trac, the other from a state housing authority, reflected a difference of 100%.
-Foreclosure Research reports that ForeclosureS.com offers different numbers for their press releases than what is available on the site through the search feature.
-Understanding reporter bias. Utilizing the exact same figures a reporter can use either of the following statements: 1 out of every 171 households received a foreclosure filing, 1 in 618 households were foreclosed, or 0.16% of all total households were foreclosed.
-ForeclosureS.com reports 5 million listings. Foreclosure Research investigates that 3.3 million of the 5 million listings are unaccounted for on the site.

September 2008
Key Points:
- Conflicting numbers reported for San Diego from various articles and foreclosure listing companies. One reported 2,004 foreclosures in July, another reported 2,174 and yet another reported 12,000.
- RealtyTrac reports 90,893 REOs for August while ForeclosureS.com reports 102,000 REOs for the same period.
-Rick Sharga admits to a lack of data in rural areas. This particular case set in West Virginia where faulty reporting created a roadblock for necessary housing legislation.

October 2008
Key Points:
-Further investigation into RealtyTrac’s claim that they do not focus on areas with less than 25,000 in population. Not surprisingly, the states with the lowest foreclosure rates also have the highest number of rural areas.
-REOShpere, a company that tracks foreclosure in the Minneapolis/St. Paul area, was found to utilize all RealtyTrac figures in their press releases.
-ForeclosureRadar reports 61.8% decrease in foreclosures for September, while Foreclosures.com reports a 38% decrease.
-RealtyTrac reports 81,312 homes lost to foreclosure, while foreclosures.com reports 107,500 homes lost to foreclosure.
-More massive discrepancies. RealtyTrac reports 47,956 foreclosure filings for Florida in September, while Foreclosures.com reports 406,895 filings.

November 2008
Key Points:
- Disregard for asterisks in foreclosure news articles. RealtyTrac reports a figure for Washington DC with an asterisk, citing “increases may not be as high due to data collection changes,” while media reports still utilize the figure omitting the fact that the data may not be correct.
-One foreclosure listing company reports an increase of foreclosures by 5 percent from September to October. Another foreclosure listing company reports that foreclosures decreased 7 percent, reflecting a total different of 12 percent.
-ForeclosureRadar reports a drop in California foreclosures by 39 percent in October, while RealtyTrac reports a decrease of 18 percent.

December 2008
Key Points:
-Understanding the different terminology offered in foreclosure articles: REOs, foreclosure filings, actual foreclosures, rate of default and default rate. These terms are not interchangeable and at times are confused in articles, which lead to a misrepresentation of data.
-Market experts predict 2009 foreclosures. Alexis McGee, president of foreclosureS.com, concludes that 2009 should see a decline in foreclosures and a rebound in the real estate market. Rick Sharga of RealtyTrac predicts more foreclosures in 2009 than 2008.
-Article states Idaho has drastic foreclosure problem when in fact the state saw only 61 foreclosures for the period in question. The rate can seem high due to the low level of population and a misrepresentation in data.

A reader can surmise from the year in review that foreclosure reporting agencies and the articles representing them can be inconclusive to say the least. Now let’s hope that 2009 brings in fewer foreclosures, accurate statistics and efficient reporting. Happy New Year!